Watchlist for the week of May 20-25, 2013

The markets have been rallying for several weeks now, with hardly any red candles. I think we are due for a pullback, but I've been thinking this for over a month and it hasn't happened yet. So there is no need to fight the trend and try to short this market for now. I have been playing fewer swings setups and have focused on day trades recently. Perhaps it's too early to be cautious, but I just can't wrap my head around getting all-in long here!

There were a lot of good-looking long setups this week, which might be a good sign since everything is setting nicely on the long side...  but it could also be a bad sign, with everyone piling in the market: that's always when pullbacks happen...

Long: LOCK, COG, SIG, ALKS, CREE, AXAS, BHI, UPS, CZR, TASR, EGHT, BSMX, KERX, FRAN, MRCY, BIDU, TVL, CBG, EXPR, GDOT, HUN, LULU, MANT, MEOH, BBY.

Short: UNXL, ABX, FLO, OSTK, WPRT, FNSR, NTWK

Parabolics: RSOL, VNDA, NBG, RH, DANG, COCO, TRGT, ESI, BZH, SCTY, VRML, STMP

Good luck this week!

Watchlist for the week of April 22-26, 2013

There was a decent selloff last week, and we bounced right where expected on the ~153.00 to 153.50 level on the SPY, that had been resistance and support previously. Gold, silver and the miners had terrible weeks and are quite oversold, so I'm expecting a small bounce this week, both in the markets and the metals. However, I think this will be a short bounce and we should see more lower lows in the coming weeks. In any case, the short-term trend has slightly changed and it is now better to sell the rips, rather than buy the dips.

On the SPY, I'm looking at a first target of 150, and then the next target of ~147-148, which also coincides with approximately the 50% Fib retracement from the Nov lows to the April highs. I've been short the indices since late March, and covered the last shares on thursday. I'll be re-loading short this week hopefully, around the 156-157 area.

Here are some setups I'm watching this week:

Long: BIOS, MNST, EDMC, RATE, KERX, LGF

Short: MXWL, BBRY, RKUS, WPRT, UPS, GPRE, NFLX

Parabolic: OSTK, ALKS, ACOR, VRTX, ANAC, RPRX, HXM

Bounce: NUGT (the 3x ETF for GDX), SLV (AGQ), GLD (DGP), WLT, CLF, GNK, UTEK, RAX


Also, feel free to check out my free chatroom, link is on the right hand side. We have some great traders and make awesome calls all day long!

Good luck this week!

Watchlist for March 25-29

At the beginning of February, I posted that would likely run up to the 155-160 area on the SPY... We've reached that target, so now what? I think the odds of a pull back are pretty good now, but I think we might see one more push to re-test the highs, or perhaps a tiny bit higher this week before a pullback happens. The market is still very strong and the bad news is not creating much panic yet. Also, I think a failed breakout to new highs would be the perfect storm to get more people long and then a selloff could happen. This is just an idea, and might not happen... Either way, keep an eye on the trendlines and the box pictured below. We will likely trade within this box for several days.

There were quite a few good looking short setups this week, and I'll be watching them if we get any weakness in the market this week. Here are some stocks I'm watching for the week:

Long: TOL, ROVI, GMCR, OPEN, CVLT, SBGI, NTWK, TA, GME, HIMX, HOLX, TVL, ASTX

Bounce: WAC, HXM, MXWL, CHKR, PCYC

Gap fill: ELN, PAY

Short: WPRT, RNF, LULU, GLNG, PETM, VHC, MS, HFC, RAX. MTGE

Parabolic: CZR, YRCW, UNXL, FLO, AWAY, NAT, EVC, EGLE, ANAC

Watchlist for the week of Feb 25 to March 1

We had a 2-day selloff this week and it happened on fairly big volume. However, I don't think this is the end of the uptrend for the year, and I would suspect in the next few weeks or months we'll make a new high, before any big correction happens. In the near term, I think we'll be chopping in a range for a little while. In any case, we now have some pretty clear boundaries with resistance at ~153 and support at around 151 on the SPY.

Here are some stocks I'm watching for the week:

Long: PANW, INFI, BCOR, ENOC, SVU, OPK, GMCR (triangle consolidation, could go either way)

Bounce: PAY, FOLD, EBIX, TRLA, RNF, MOS, AGU

Short: BGMD, ZLC, LULU, SOHU, KERX (if it breaks 6.50)

Parabolics: MBLX, YY, PRKR, NVGN, TECUA, NTWK, PIKE


Good luck this week and feel free to check out my free chatroom!

Watchlist for the week of Feb 18-22

The markets keep pushing higher since my last post 2 weeks ago, and all the same trendlines remain. We've almost reached the first ascending trendline and RSI is getting close to oversold levels on the weekly chart. Perhaps one more week higher, and we should see a pullback. Alternatively, it's possible that we see a small pause this week, before moving higher again next week... Either way, we're still in an uptrend on the weekly chart!

 

 

The only thing to take notice of is on the daily chart, where price keeps making higher highs, but volume is decreasing on green days, and RSI, stochastics and MACD are all starting to show some divergences (higher price, lower high on indicator). Additionally, the down days are seeing higher volume lately, and I think it would be very healthy to come back and visit the 20d MA, which hasn't been touched in 2013.

 

 

 

Here are a few stocks I'm watching this week:

 

Long: OSK, NTAP, TZOO, YPF, KERX, VHC, TA, HMPR, CELG, BMRN

 

Short: GNK, SIMO, BIDU, PETM, RAX, RPRX

 

Parabolic short: SPWR, DQ, UNXL, TECUA, INCY, BIOF, EV, PCYC, TRLA, VCLK, ASYS, ROIAK, ATVI

 

Bounce: HSP, EZCH, PBR, RVBD, END, EHTH

 



 

 

 



Watchlist for the week of Feb 4-8

I appologize for not posting lately, I have just been lazy since the holidays! Anyway, the market has basically been grinding higher since mid-December, and we've had an amazing run in January! It's kinda hard to tell where we're going from here, but from the weekly chart below, I can see the SPY moving higher to the 155-160 area. We might have small pauses along the way, but the market is really strong so I don't see any reasons why we wouldn't push up to 155 at least. On the daily timeframe the SPY is slightly overbought, but not on the weekly timeframe, so there is more room to go higher. And RSI on the weekly has been doing a great job with timing the major rotations in the market, so until that stops working, I would keep an eye on that for your general market trend.

 

 

It might be a bit late to go all-in long here if you haven't participated in this rally yet, as the market has already made a big move, but I think if you play a few good setups, and have tight stops, there will still be some opportunities on the long side.

 

One of the stocks I'm watching is ESI, that is forming a bull flag on the daily chart, and looks ready to break above the 50d MA for the first time in almost 1 year. Every time it tried previously, it failed, so it needs to hold above this time and we might see a powerful move. I'm long 1/2 size and will add if it can break and hold above the 50d MA.

 

 

 

 

Here are some more ideas for the week:

 

Long: DISH, PKD, OCN, MOV, ADBE, NAV, TECUA, ZNGA, IQNT, ARO, CRNT, IMUC, ACTV

 

Short: FSLR, RPRX, EGHT, BKS

 

Parabolic: MGAM, UIS, BLRX, AGO, TA (could also be a long), GTN (could also be a long), KERX (on bounces),

 

Red to green: OTT, EDAP, CCUR

 

Bounce: RIMM, HALO, CLSN,

 

Good luck this week!

 

 

 





Watchlist for the week of December 17-21

We had a small pullback this week, which was well-needed in my opinion. On the daily chart of the SPY we're forming a triangle consolidation withing a larger pattern. I expect the market to find support around the lows of friday, or perhaps a tad lower near the 141 area, which coincides with the 20d MA. Volume is likely going to be lower until the new year, which is often good for small caps or stocks with high short ratios.

Here are some stocks I'm watching for the week:


Long: CTXS, SMBL, GPRE, EXPR, DNDN, RVBD, BAC, SLXP, CLMT, FXEN, CPHD, AMD

In play: SWHC, ARIA

Bounce: DKS, ARIA, AVD, TEVA, OPTR, ALLT, SWKS

Short: BEN, CALL, FB, USB, CHK, CALI, NAK

Parabolic short: NED, QUAD, NEON, RKUS, ICPT, TSL, STXS


Good luck this week!

Watchlist for the week of Dec 10-15

Last week we printed a bunch of dojis in a row, marking some indecision in the market. On the SPY daily chart, we're consolidating in a flag, or ascending triangle. All the moving averages, except for the 50d MA are curving up, and it seems like we might try to make a run to the highs by the end of the year. Typically December is a good month for equities, especially small caps which usually run wild into the end of the year! The only thing that concerns me is that we are slightly overbought, particularly on the Russell and the QQQs are weak in comparison to the other indices. I'm positioned slightly long, but I would get concerned if we broke below the 50d again though and even more if we breakdown from this triangle consolidation...

Here are some stocks I'm watching for the week:

Long: MNST, SMBL, GPRE, CNC, KLAC, LULU, HUN, FST, SIG, IDIX, MCP, Z, COV, BTH, AMD, CYBX

Red/green: HUM, MHP

In play: GMCR, SWHC, GRPN, FB

Bounce: FCX, LFVN

Short: HES, TOL, LEN, JOBS, NOV, OSTK, ZLC, CALL, SINA, PCYC

Parabolic short: CBMX, MHP, SD, GTIM, UNXL, GNW, BEAM, MU, RKUS


Send me a tweet if you want more info on how I play these setups @cath_campbell
Good luck this week!

Watchlist for the week of Dec 3-7

Last week was pretty interesting with that huge reversal on wednesday and a strong close. Since then we've had 2 doji days and it seems like the market is just coiling before going higher. I would expect a few days of consolidation, but if we can get above that ~142.50 clear level of resistance, we could run back up to the highs of the year. And december is typically a good month, with lots of small caps making big runs.

Here's a list of stocks I'll be watching this week. I've added a few thin, small cap names since they can typically run during the month of december. If you want, you can copy an entire line of symbols here and paste them in Finviz, which allows you to see all the charts at once, like this.

Long: SMBL, GPRE, CNC, JOBS, MNST, FSLR, LNKD, SNTA, ADNC, VVUS, TEX, AUMN, MBI, ESI, PGH, AVID, OSUR

Short: GNRC, PCYC, HIBB, BKS

Parabolic short: SGYP, PPHM, CARV, EXPR, ANAD, JRCC (not officially a parabolic, but similar idea)


Below I marked up a couple of charts for examples of how to play these setups:

 SMBL: Nice flag on the daily, and near long-term resistance. Long above 12.50 or so, with first target at around 13, and a stop below 12.09

VVUS: Nice triangle consolidation, seems to have put in a bottom. Long above 11.60 or so, target to ~14.00 and stop just below 11.

GNRC: It's hovering on the edge of that gap area. Short below 32.4, first target around 30, then perhaps 28.70, with a stop above friday's hod ~33.

Watchlist for the week of Nov 19-23, 2012

So last week the market fell pretty hard and we dropped to the 61.8% Fib. This was a little more than I anticipated, but we did form a slight divergence on the RSI which I was watching. Is this the bottom? I don't know, but it sure feels like it might be. The strong buying during the second half of friday tells me we're in for at least a decent bounce.

I shorted some 3x ETFs on thursday and friday (the SOXS, TZA, SQQQ), and I plan to hold onto these for a while in my swing portfolio. Typically december and january are good months for the market, so I'm hoping this trend continues.

 It's going to be a short week because of thanksgiving, but I suspect we'll bounce to ~138 in the SPY, which around the 50% Fib level, as well as the 200d MA. After that, we'll have to re-evaluate and see where the market might be headed.

There were a lot of hammers that were put in on friday, so I picked some of these charts and will be looking for continuation. The best hammers are those that happen on high volume, in combination with price support and even better if they bounce off a moving average.

Long (flags or consolidations): SRPT, HGT, FMCN, NFLX, LEAP, GGC, GPRE, TEAR, WCRX, CNC, TRMB, GEOY, AVG, TSLA, FRO, ARMH
Long (hammers): FSLR, CNX, ATRS, CRUS, STEI, JCOM, HRS, SIG, ULTI, DDD
Oversold bounce: WIN, ATR, JCP, MCP, ESI, CPE, MBI, ERF, SKUL, BTH, PBI
Shorts: ROSG, JAH, MIC
Parabolic shorts: NVGN, MEIP, STV, CYBX, SGYP (not parabolic, but coming into MA resistance)

Good luck this week!

Watchlist for the week of Nov 13-16

The market made it down to my target and I grabbed some 3x long ETFs on friday for a bounce trade. I deceided to take my profits by friday afternoon as I just wasn't feeling confident the market would bounce for more than a day... I'll be looking to get back long in the next few days or couple of weeks, but I'll be waiting for the scenario outlined below. Ideally, we get a lower low with some type divergence on the indicators, RSI, MACD or stochastics, as you can see in the chart below. A double bottom would work just as well, as long as there is also a divergence formed... That would be my ideal scenario, but we'll have to see what the market has in mind.

Watchlist for the week of Nov 5-9

Well, the market briefly bounced last week, but on fridayit got rejected at the 50d MA and we ended the day with a big bearish engulfing candle. This bodes well for more downside, and I'm still looking for the target of ~138 on the SPY and my chart from last week basically hasn't changed much. I will likely be playing more short setups this week, but we'll have to see what happens. The presidential elections will likely have an impact on the market, so it will likely be an interesting week. See the chart below:

Here are a few setups I'll be watching this week:

Long: SVU, TASR, OSTK, MTB, MTG, CTRP, SRPT, LPHI, SANM

Red/green: SLCA, ANTH, AZC, XIDE, STP

Bounce: NUVA, CRUS, ZUMZ, VVUS, ALXN

Short: XNPT, REGN, OCN, ZLC, ALNY, SMBL, SMCI,  DVAX, BVSN

Parabolic short: ENZ, ALC, BGFV, CARB, ACCO, VAR, IMH, PBH, HNSN


Drop me a line if you want more information on how to play these setups and good luck this week!

Watchlist for the week of Oct 30 to Nov 2

Last week we had some more distribution on good volume and I'm looking for a little more downside before trying some long swings. I posted this chart last wednesday when I noticed the similarities with the correction from May 2012.

I would love to see the SPY retrace back to the 200d MA, which also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement of the entire move from the June lows. This ~138 level was also an important resistance level in the beginning of the year and in the summer, and also happens to be around the highs from 2011. Finding some support there would make sense to me, but we'll have to see what happens. Notice the bear flag on the daily, similar to the one from May 2012, and the heavy distribution volume.

The only thing that concerns me is that the Russell and the Nasdaq have already retraced 50% of their move from the June lows, and they are somewhat oversold on the dailies. I expect some type of bounce this week, especially after the nice close we had on friday, but overall I'll be looking for more lows in the next couple of weeks.

Here's some stocks I'll be watching this week:

Long: AUQ, MTG, MTB, HGT, TSN, LNG, URI, CTRP

Oversold or dead cat bounce: AVID, VRSN, RGS, NFX, HMSY, MPO, RGS

Red to green: OCN, WAC, ETR

Short: ALXN, ISIS, ARNA, GFI, PPHM, PBT, ROSG,

Parabolic shorts: OFG, OSTK, TASR, PKI, WBMD, AEGR, CYCC, NFLX (might get parabolic, not there yet)


Drop me a line if you want more info on how to play these setups... and good luck this week!

Watchlist for Oct 21-25

We had a pretty heavy distribution day on friday and the Russell and Nasdaq broke some important levels of support. The SPY and DIA are right on support, but it doesn't look like this support will hold this week. The SPY had been in a range for almost 2 months, but now it seem like we will breakout of the box lower.  I suspect we might have a day or two of bounce in the cards perhaps this week, but friday was a big sign that we're not done going lower in my opinion. There is growing evidence that we may have put in an intermediate term top:
- high volume distribution
- attempting to make new highs, but not being able to (SPY for example)
- breaking significant levels of support
- other factors, including the weakness is former market leaders (GOOG, AAPL, etc)

Another important factor to note is the MACD and RSI divergences on the weekly charts, here's an example with SPY:

The only three sectors that seem to be holding to be holding up ok are the financials and the silver and gold miners (SIL, GDX).

To be honest, I didn't find many great setups, so I'll probably be more cautious this week... in any case, here are a few stocks to watch this week:

Long: BAC, JAG, AEM, AUY, AUQ, BBG, HGT, INSM, TSN, CNC, MDRX

Short: CRR, GFI, MPO, TSO, FITB, PB, GDOT, ACW, ROSG, ALNY, JAZZ, GILD, PPHM

Parabolic shorts: OEH, GIVN, GURE, HLSS, DF, MEET

Watchlist for the week of Oct 8-12

We had a nice bounce this week and the SPY held converging levels of support at ~143. The DJ is at 52w highs, but the russell and the nasdaq are lagging... Overall the picture is neutral (with a slightly more bullish tone) and I could see us consolidating in this box for a couple of weeks. I think a breakout is likely, but it might take a little more time.

Here are some stocks I'll be watching this week:

Long: AFFX, PATK, BODY, SNTA, CECO, OMX, SVN, ES, AXTI, ALSK, CLSN
Short: FSLR, VVUS, PPHM, IDIX, NAV, CNC, GMCR, DNDN, RSH, XPO
Parabolic shorts: IMH, SFUN, INSM, OCN, SVA, FONR
Bounce: CMG, PBM, NUVA, XRTX, MSCI
Red/Green: DCTH
In Play: SRPT, NFLX, PAY, QCOR, PPP, SNSS

If you don't know how to play these setups, drop me a line and I can explain what I look for!
good luck!

Watchlist for Sept 24

The market digested last week, and I feel like the consolidation was quite bullish. As long as we hold the ~144 level on the SPY, I'm still leaning long.. In fact, dips to the 20d MA would be good opportunities to get long. And the environment these days is more condusive to holding stocks for swings, ie a few days at least. Breakouts are working, and I've been seeing more follow-through, so that's a good bullish sign!

Here's a few stocks I'm watching tomorrow and perhaps this week:

Long: SINA, MCP, SSH, OTT, SVU, ZNGA, ARNA, ODP, GENE, ROSG, STEI, UBNT, EDU, EGLE, SYNC, RSH, MTG

Shorts and parabolic shorts: MACK, PPHM, CDE, GSS, AMPE, IEC, HALO, STI, OMX, IMH, MNST

Bounce: DDD, IHS, XPO, HEES

I'm already long a little ZNGA, SVU, JAG and RSH for swings.

Game plan for the week of Sept 17-21

Last week was really bullish, and the announcement of more QE from the FED means we're likely going to continue this bull market for several more months.  However, we are slightly extended here on the major indices, being above the upper BB, so I would be expecting a small pullback or at least sideways consolidation. But any pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities to get long in my opinion.

Here's a daily chart of the SPY:

And here's some stocks I'll be watching this week:

Long: TSYS, APKT, PZZI, GMCR, YELP, TTMI, CHK, PACW, MVIS, HDY

Short: CNC, REED, VIRC, CUR, FBN, BIOF, OMX, HNI

Watchlist for the week of Sept 4-7, 2012

I've had family visiting for all of August, so been away from trading for about a month now, ut now I'm back and ready to trade again!

During the first half of August, the market trended higher, but the SPY was firmly rejected at the 143 level.  And now we have been consolidating near the top of the recent highs for about two weeks. We're still in the ascending channel that you can see in my SPY chart below, and this has been my guide all summer. We've moved away from the top of the channel, and we seem to be setting up to break higher. A move above 142 would be very bullish in my opinion. Keep an eye on that mini-triangle forming on the daily chart below. The bollinger bands are tightening, so I think a big move is coming soon.

 

There are tons of bullish looking setups out there, so many in fact, that I couldn't condense my list as short as I wanted! Here are a few ideas for the week ahead:

 

Long: SINA, LNG, CYOU, YNDX, LSI, MPEL, LVS, LNKD, CREE, AZC, NAK, APKT, MEOH, DECK, LULU, TIF, ES, TTWO, AIR, MPG, DSCO

 

Parabolic shorts: NTE, RPRX, SRPT, STEM, GERN, IMH, ZLC

Shorts: VVUS



What next?

We got to my target ~135 in the SPY much faster than I had anticipated, so what now? Well, I think we're headed lower... we might consolidate for 1-2 days, but the next target that I'm looking for is ~132, where the 200d will be in a few days!

Watchlist for the week of July 22nd, 2012

So last week we got to my 138 target on the SPY and near the top of the bear flag on the daily chart. I went short near that target, but I was too scared to hold over the week-end. The SPY and the DIA printed a doji on thursday, right near resistance, so that was a fairly good "caution" signal. The next day we gapped down, so it seems we might have a short-term change in trend. I'm expecting more decline in the indices this week, but we might need to consolidate a little more before a fall back down to the ~135 area in the SPY, as there are many moving averages below the current price that will serve as support (the 10, 20, 50 and 100d MAs). Eventually, I think we might break down from this bear flag on the daily, but I'll have to see confirmation of that before going all in short! Below is a daily chart of the SPY, with my target near 135 highlighted:

Here are some stocks I'm watching for the week:
Long: ENTR, AFFY, GERN (above the 200d only), CLDX, AUTH, ALNY, BWS, COG, KEG, MSM, DDD

Short: AUXL, PCYC, SOHU, GNW, MHR, MCP, SBUX, HTZ, FONR, ORI

Parabolic short: PSTI (I'm already short this name), STEM (also have 1/4 left short), KEQU, PPHM, CPRX, ALJ

Dead cat bounces: DF, WHX (maybe one more day), CMG, OSG, HHS, IRG, GORO, STAA

Good luck this week, and feel free to drop me a line if you have any comments or questions!