Watchlist for the week of July 16th, 2012

We had a nice bounce in the markets on friday, and I'm expecting a little continuation next week. I suspect we'll see the ~138 level in the SPY, with maybe a little consolidation ~ 136.5 along the way. However, we're forming a bear flag as you can see in the daily chart below, which leads me to believe that we might be headed lower in the intermediate term. I've added a horizontal trendline that is sort of my "bull/bear" line in the sand... I'm also watching the edges of the flag for low risk opportunities and to improve my timing in buying/shorting individual names.

Ideally, I would like to see a lower low in the indices, accompanied by some strong divergence signals, like we saw last summer (the chart below is an example with the MACD divergence, although stochastics, RSI and other indicators also showed some divergences). This is typically what a bottom looks like...

It's also interesting to note the negative divergence that formed two weeks ago in the SPY (shown below), and this also happened back inte Sept-2011, so keep an eye on your indicators to get a sense of the overall possible direction.

Here are some ideas for the week:
Parabolic shorts: AFFY,  CADX, ETRM, NVAX
Shorts: RPRX (see the chart below), PCYC, PCRX, SMBL, CYTR, DDS, GNK, FONR
Longs: PRMW, LNG, CIE, DMND, PATK, RSE, PSX, ECYT, ASGN, LPI, DXCM
Dead cat bounce: NLST, ADTN, QTM, CALX, SVU, PAL, LXK, AMPE, MAKO, DGIT (sitting on support, see chart below)

It takes me too long to post charts for the whole watchlist, but if you're not sure how to trade these, drop me a line at cathcampbell_25 (at) hotmail dot com and I can explain what I'm seeing and how to trade particular setups.

Good luck this week! 

Week of June 10, 2012

Futures are way up tonight, so we should gap up tomorrow. The key level is 134 on the SPY and we'll probably gap above that. I'm not going to chase such a big gap up, but I wish I was more long in my acocunt! In any case, I'll be looking for dips to buy and particular stocks that breakout on volume. Breakouts should have lots of follow-through on monday!

I'm not posting any charts, but here's some sstuff I'm watching: Long: HUSA, ZNGA, RCON, GTIM, ROYL, GNE, NCIT, ONTY, ARNA, SGI, RST, END
Short: PCYC,  ZLCS, CALL, BHI, FOLD

I like the small caps on big up days because they can run 10-15% if there is decent follow-through!

Good luck!

Update June 7th, 2012

The market has bounced nicely off the ~127 level on the SPY. We had two big up days on tuesday and wednesday this week, and then an almost 1% gap up today. I took most of my profits on my longs right at the open and in pre-market this morning, but I should have just taken them all off! Anyway, I'm looking for some consolidation/digestion in the next couple of days, and maybe the formation of an inverse head and shoulder on the indices. See  possible scenario on the chart below:

I don't see much in terms of actionable setups,  but here's a few stocks that I'm watching: RST, END, SGI, PVA, FB, VHC, ARNA, BVSN, HGT.

Watchlist for the week of May 14-18, 2012

The market has been pretty weak of late, and even the oversold bounces have not been very convicing. All the indices appear to be forming bear flags on the daily charts and we are likely headed lower. The bear flags might be too obvious, and often when everyone is watching the same pattern, these patterns don't work out... so be ready for anything!

We are getting close to some interesting areas of support, but I will try not to jump in on the long side too early this time. On the SPY, I'll be watching these areas of support: ~133, 130 and 128.

Here's some stocks that I'm watching this week:

Long: HW, AWAY, MRH, POWI, BLDR, HDSN, APOG

Short: SUNH, IMOS, THLD, ALSK, ANSS

Parabolic short: ARNA, RPRX, RST, AXK, HTH

Dead cat bounce: CHK, NANO, FOSL, SFY, MAKO, HLF, DECK, BODY, TAST, RNDY, CPNO, RNF

For a quick view of charts, you can copy the tickers and paste them into Finviz, check it out:

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HW,AWAY,MRH,POWI,BLDR,HDSN

Update on the box

So we've broken down from the box I drew a few weeks ago that I posted on chart.ly (http://chart.ly/6grx88i). My initial target is ~133.50 to 134 on the SPY, and if that doesn't hold, we could see a deeper correction. I started legging into some longs today in small size, in anticipation that 134 will hold, but if it doesn't, I'll probably be stopped out on my positions.

Another thing I'm keeping an eye on is oil, which just had 5 nasty days. I started a small 1/5 size long position today in USO and will average in. USO is pretty oversold on the daily, and I think this level of 36 is a pretty decent spot to buy. I will add more if we get to ~35.

Watchlist for the week of March 26-30

The indices are still all in a uptrend. There is no reason to be short, at least not yet... Watch that ascending trendline for a break or for a trend change.

Here are a few stocks that I'm watching for the week:

Long: SIMG, AMED, TA, AVID, ZUMZ, PAY, MX, VVTV, VVUS, GIL, CYOU, SFLY, NLST, LEAP (could also be a short depending which way the break happens)

Also, these might be interesting: THQI, ALSK, IVAN

 

Watchlist for the week of Feb 6-10

The market is in an uptrend, there's no arguing about it. How long will it last? Who knows... But for now, the best r/r is to the long side. Biotech and shippers are doing very well these days. Here's a  few stocks I'm watching for the week, in no particular order:

Long: BIOF, TNK, CCIH,  PWAV, TWER, CCJ, EGHT, ROYL, VVTV, DMND, FCX, VMED, MTG, SOL, HSOL, WRES, GTIV, VIT, STAA

Good luck this week!