Game plan for the week of Sept 17-21

Last week was really bullish, and the announcement of more QE from the FED means we're likely going to continue this bull market for several more months.  However, we are slightly extended here on the major indices, being above the upper BB, so I would be expecting a small pullback or at least sideways consolidation. But any pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities to get long in my opinion.

Here's a daily chart of the SPY:

And here's some stocks I'll be watching this week:

Long: TSYS, APKT, PZZI, GMCR, YELP, TTMI, CHK, PACW, MVIS, HDY

Short: CNC, REED, VIRC, CUR, FBN, BIOF, OMX, HNI

Watchlist for the week of Sept 4-7, 2012

I've had family visiting for all of August, so been away from trading for about a month now, ut now I'm back and ready to trade again!

During the first half of August, the market trended higher, but the SPY was firmly rejected at the 143 level.  And now we have been consolidating near the top of the recent highs for about two weeks. We're still in the ascending channel that you can see in my SPY chart below, and this has been my guide all summer. We've moved away from the top of the channel, and we seem to be setting up to break higher. A move above 142 would be very bullish in my opinion. Keep an eye on that mini-triangle forming on the daily chart below. The bollinger bands are tightening, so I think a big move is coming soon.

 

There are tons of bullish looking setups out there, so many in fact, that I couldn't condense my list as short as I wanted! Here are a few ideas for the week ahead:

 

Long: SINA, LNG, CYOU, YNDX, LSI, MPEL, LVS, LNKD, CREE, AZC, NAK, APKT, MEOH, DECK, LULU, TIF, ES, TTWO, AIR, MPG, DSCO

 

Parabolic shorts: NTE, RPRX, SRPT, STEM, GERN, IMH, ZLC

Shorts: VVUS



What next?

We got to my target ~135 in the SPY much faster than I had anticipated, so what now? Well, I think we're headed lower... we might consolidate for 1-2 days, but the next target that I'm looking for is ~132, where the 200d will be in a few days!

Watchlist for the week of July 22nd, 2012

So last week we got to my 138 target on the SPY and near the top of the bear flag on the daily chart. I went short near that target, but I was too scared to hold over the week-end. The SPY and the DIA printed a doji on thursday, right near resistance, so that was a fairly good "caution" signal. The next day we gapped down, so it seems we might have a short-term change in trend. I'm expecting more decline in the indices this week, but we might need to consolidate a little more before a fall back down to the ~135 area in the SPY, as there are many moving averages below the current price that will serve as support (the 10, 20, 50 and 100d MAs). Eventually, I think we might break down from this bear flag on the daily, but I'll have to see confirmation of that before going all in short! Below is a daily chart of the SPY, with my target near 135 highlighted:

Here are some stocks I'm watching for the week:
Long: ENTR, AFFY, GERN (above the 200d only), CLDX, AUTH, ALNY, BWS, COG, KEG, MSM, DDD

Short: AUXL, PCYC, SOHU, GNW, MHR, MCP, SBUX, HTZ, FONR, ORI

Parabolic short: PSTI (I'm already short this name), STEM (also have 1/4 left short), KEQU, PPHM, CPRX, ALJ

Dead cat bounces: DF, WHX (maybe one more day), CMG, OSG, HHS, IRG, GORO, STAA

Good luck this week, and feel free to drop me a line if you have any comments or questions!

Watchlist for the week of July 16th, 2012

We had a nice bounce in the markets on friday, and I'm expecting a little continuation next week. I suspect we'll see the ~138 level in the SPY, with maybe a little consolidation ~ 136.5 along the way. However, we're forming a bear flag as you can see in the daily chart below, which leads me to believe that we might be headed lower in the intermediate term. I've added a horizontal trendline that is sort of my "bull/bear" line in the sand... I'm also watching the edges of the flag for low risk opportunities and to improve my timing in buying/shorting individual names.

Ideally, I would like to see a lower low in the indices, accompanied by some strong divergence signals, like we saw last summer (the chart below is an example with the MACD divergence, although stochastics, RSI and other indicators also showed some divergences). This is typically what a bottom looks like...

It's also interesting to note the negative divergence that formed two weeks ago in the SPY (shown below), and this also happened back inte Sept-2011, so keep an eye on your indicators to get a sense of the overall possible direction.

Here are some ideas for the week:
Parabolic shorts: AFFY,  CADX, ETRM, NVAX
Shorts: RPRX (see the chart below), PCYC, PCRX, SMBL, CYTR, DDS, GNK, FONR
Longs: PRMW, LNG, CIE, DMND, PATK, RSE, PSX, ECYT, ASGN, LPI, DXCM
Dead cat bounce: NLST, ADTN, QTM, CALX, SVU, PAL, LXK, AMPE, MAKO, DGIT (sitting on support, see chart below)

It takes me too long to post charts for the whole watchlist, but if you're not sure how to trade these, drop me a line at cathcampbell_25 (at) hotmail dot com and I can explain what I'm seeing and how to trade particular setups.

Good luck this week! 

Week of June 10, 2012

Futures are way up tonight, so we should gap up tomorrow. The key level is 134 on the SPY and we'll probably gap above that. I'm not going to chase such a big gap up, but I wish I was more long in my acocunt! In any case, I'll be looking for dips to buy and particular stocks that breakout on volume. Breakouts should have lots of follow-through on monday!

I'm not posting any charts, but here's some sstuff I'm watching: Long: HUSA, ZNGA, RCON, GTIM, ROYL, GNE, NCIT, ONTY, ARNA, SGI, RST, END
Short: PCYC,  ZLCS, CALL, BHI, FOLD

I like the small caps on big up days because they can run 10-15% if there is decent follow-through!

Good luck!

Update June 7th, 2012

The market has bounced nicely off the ~127 level on the SPY. We had two big up days on tuesday and wednesday this week, and then an almost 1% gap up today. I took most of my profits on my longs right at the open and in pre-market this morning, but I should have just taken them all off! Anyway, I'm looking for some consolidation/digestion in the next couple of days, and maybe the formation of an inverse head and shoulder on the indices. See  possible scenario on the chart below:

I don't see much in terms of actionable setups,  but here's a few stocks that I'm watching: RST, END, SGI, PVA, FB, VHC, ARNA, BVSN, HGT.