Watchlist for Oct 21-25

We had a pretty heavy distribution day on friday and the Russell and Nasdaq broke some important levels of support. The SPY and DIA are right on support, but it doesn't look like this support will hold this week. The SPY had been in a range for almost 2 months, but now it seem like we will breakout of the box lower.  I suspect we might have a day or two of bounce in the cards perhaps this week, but friday was a big sign that we're not done going lower in my opinion. There is growing evidence that we may have put in an intermediate term top:
- high volume distribution
- attempting to make new highs, but not being able to (SPY for example)
- breaking significant levels of support
- other factors, including the weakness is former market leaders (GOOG, AAPL, etc)

Another important factor to note is the MACD and RSI divergences on the weekly charts, here's an example with SPY:

The only three sectors that seem to be holding to be holding up ok are the financials and the silver and gold miners (SIL, GDX).

To be honest, I didn't find many great setups, so I'll probably be more cautious this week... in any case, here are a few stocks to watch this week:

Long: BAC, JAG, AEM, AUY, AUQ, BBG, HGT, INSM, TSN, CNC, MDRX

Short: CRR, GFI, MPO, TSO, FITB, PB, GDOT, ACW, ROSG, ALNY, JAZZ, GILD, PPHM

Parabolic shorts: OEH, GIVN, GURE, HLSS, DF, MEET

Watchlist for the week of Oct 8-12

We had a nice bounce this week and the SPY held converging levels of support at ~143. The DJ is at 52w highs, but the russell and the nasdaq are lagging... Overall the picture is neutral (with a slightly more bullish tone) and I could see us consolidating in this box for a couple of weeks. I think a breakout is likely, but it might take a little more time.

Here are some stocks I'll be watching this week:

Long: AFFX, PATK, BODY, SNTA, CECO, OMX, SVN, ES, AXTI, ALSK, CLSN
Short: FSLR, VVUS, PPHM, IDIX, NAV, CNC, GMCR, DNDN, RSH, XPO
Parabolic shorts: IMH, SFUN, INSM, OCN, SVA, FONR
Bounce: CMG, PBM, NUVA, XRTX, MSCI
Red/Green: DCTH
In Play: SRPT, NFLX, PAY, QCOR, PPP, SNSS

If you don't know how to play these setups, drop me a line and I can explain what I look for!
good luck!

Watchlist for Sept 24

The market digested last week, and I feel like the consolidation was quite bullish. As long as we hold the ~144 level on the SPY, I'm still leaning long.. In fact, dips to the 20d MA would be good opportunities to get long. And the environment these days is more condusive to holding stocks for swings, ie a few days at least. Breakouts are working, and I've been seeing more follow-through, so that's a good bullish sign!

Here's a few stocks I'm watching tomorrow and perhaps this week:

Long: SINA, MCP, SSH, OTT, SVU, ZNGA, ARNA, ODP, GENE, ROSG, STEI, UBNT, EDU, EGLE, SYNC, RSH, MTG

Shorts and parabolic shorts: MACK, PPHM, CDE, GSS, AMPE, IEC, HALO, STI, OMX, IMH, MNST

Bounce: DDD, IHS, XPO, HEES

I'm already long a little ZNGA, SVU, JAG and RSH for swings.

Game plan for the week of Sept 17-21

Last week was really bullish, and the announcement of more QE from the FED means we're likely going to continue this bull market for several more months.  However, we are slightly extended here on the major indices, being above the upper BB, so I would be expecting a small pullback or at least sideways consolidation. But any pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities to get long in my opinion.

Here's a daily chart of the SPY:

And here's some stocks I'll be watching this week:

Long: TSYS, APKT, PZZI, GMCR, YELP, TTMI, CHK, PACW, MVIS, HDY

Short: CNC, REED, VIRC, CUR, FBN, BIOF, OMX, HNI

Watchlist for the week of Sept 4-7, 2012

I've had family visiting for all of August, so been away from trading for about a month now, ut now I'm back and ready to trade again!

During the first half of August, the market trended higher, but the SPY was firmly rejected at the 143 level.  And now we have been consolidating near the top of the recent highs for about two weeks. We're still in the ascending channel that you can see in my SPY chart below, and this has been my guide all summer. We've moved away from the top of the channel, and we seem to be setting up to break higher. A move above 142 would be very bullish in my opinion. Keep an eye on that mini-triangle forming on the daily chart below. The bollinger bands are tightening, so I think a big move is coming soon.

 

There are tons of bullish looking setups out there, so many in fact, that I couldn't condense my list as short as I wanted! Here are a few ideas for the week ahead:

 

Long: SINA, LNG, CYOU, YNDX, LSI, MPEL, LVS, LNKD, CREE, AZC, NAK, APKT, MEOH, DECK, LULU, TIF, ES, TTWO, AIR, MPG, DSCO

 

Parabolic shorts: NTE, RPRX, SRPT, STEM, GERN, IMH, ZLC

Shorts: VVUS



What next?

We got to my target ~135 in the SPY much faster than I had anticipated, so what now? Well, I think we're headed lower... we might consolidate for 1-2 days, but the next target that I'm looking for is ~132, where the 200d will be in a few days!

Watchlist for the week of July 22nd, 2012

So last week we got to my 138 target on the SPY and near the top of the bear flag on the daily chart. I went short near that target, but I was too scared to hold over the week-end. The SPY and the DIA printed a doji on thursday, right near resistance, so that was a fairly good "caution" signal. The next day we gapped down, so it seems we might have a short-term change in trend. I'm expecting more decline in the indices this week, but we might need to consolidate a little more before a fall back down to the ~135 area in the SPY, as there are many moving averages below the current price that will serve as support (the 10, 20, 50 and 100d MAs). Eventually, I think we might break down from this bear flag on the daily, but I'll have to see confirmation of that before going all in short! Below is a daily chart of the SPY, with my target near 135 highlighted:

Here are some stocks I'm watching for the week:
Long: ENTR, AFFY, GERN (above the 200d only), CLDX, AUTH, ALNY, BWS, COG, KEG, MSM, DDD

Short: AUXL, PCYC, SOHU, GNW, MHR, MCP, SBUX, HTZ, FONR, ORI

Parabolic short: PSTI (I'm already short this name), STEM (also have 1/4 left short), KEQU, PPHM, CPRX, ALJ

Dead cat bounces: DF, WHX (maybe one more day), CMG, OSG, HHS, IRG, GORO, STAA

Good luck this week, and feel free to drop me a line if you have any comments or questions!