Watchlist for the week of Nov 19-23, 2012

So last week the market fell pretty hard and we dropped to the 61.8% Fib. This was a little more than I anticipated, but we did form a slight divergence on the RSI which I was watching. Is this the bottom? I don't know, but it sure feels like it might be. The strong buying during the second half of friday tells me we're in for at least a decent bounce.

I shorted some 3x ETFs on thursday and friday (the SOXS, TZA, SQQQ), and I plan to hold onto these for a while in my swing portfolio. Typically december and january are good months for the market, so I'm hoping this trend continues.

 It's going to be a short week because of thanksgiving, but I suspect we'll bounce to ~138 in the SPY, which around the 50% Fib level, as well as the 200d MA. After that, we'll have to re-evaluate and see where the market might be headed.

There were a lot of hammers that were put in on friday, so I picked some of these charts and will be looking for continuation. The best hammers are those that happen on high volume, in combination with price support and even better if they bounce off a moving average.

Long (flags or consolidations): SRPT, HGT, FMCN, NFLX, LEAP, GGC, GPRE, TEAR, WCRX, CNC, TRMB, GEOY, AVG, TSLA, FRO, ARMH
Long (hammers): FSLR, CNX, ATRS, CRUS, STEI, JCOM, HRS, SIG, ULTI, DDD
Oversold bounce: WIN, ATR, JCP, MCP, ESI, CPE, MBI, ERF, SKUL, BTH, PBI
Shorts: ROSG, JAH, MIC
Parabolic shorts: NVGN, MEIP, STV, CYBX, SGYP (not parabolic, but coming into MA resistance)

Good luck this week!

Watchlist for the week of Nov 13-16

The market made it down to my target and I grabbed some 3x long ETFs on friday for a bounce trade. I deceided to take my profits by friday afternoon as I just wasn't feeling confident the market would bounce for more than a day... I'll be looking to get back long in the next few days or couple of weeks, but I'll be waiting for the scenario outlined below. Ideally, we get a lower low with some type divergence on the indicators, RSI, MACD or stochastics, as you can see in the chart below. A double bottom would work just as well, as long as there is also a divergence formed... That would be my ideal scenario, but we'll have to see what the market has in mind.

Watchlist for the week of Nov 5-9

Well, the market briefly bounced last week, but on fridayit got rejected at the 50d MA and we ended the day with a big bearish engulfing candle. This bodes well for more downside, and I'm still looking for the target of ~138 on the SPY and my chart from last week basically hasn't changed much. I will likely be playing more short setups this week, but we'll have to see what happens. The presidential elections will likely have an impact on the market, so it will likely be an interesting week. See the chart below:

Here are a few setups I'll be watching this week:

Long: SVU, TASR, OSTK, MTB, MTG, CTRP, SRPT, LPHI, SANM

Red/green: SLCA, ANTH, AZC, XIDE, STP

Bounce: NUVA, CRUS, ZUMZ, VVUS, ALXN

Short: XNPT, REGN, OCN, ZLC, ALNY, SMBL, SMCI,  DVAX, BVSN

Parabolic short: ENZ, ALC, BGFV, CARB, ACCO, VAR, IMH, PBH, HNSN


Drop me a line if you want more information on how to play these setups and good luck this week!

Watchlist for the week of Oct 30 to Nov 2

Last week we had some more distribution on good volume and I'm looking for a little more downside before trying some long swings. I posted this chart last wednesday when I noticed the similarities with the correction from May 2012.

I would love to see the SPY retrace back to the 200d MA, which also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement of the entire move from the June lows. This ~138 level was also an important resistance level in the beginning of the year and in the summer, and also happens to be around the highs from 2011. Finding some support there would make sense to me, but we'll have to see what happens. Notice the bear flag on the daily, similar to the one from May 2012, and the heavy distribution volume.

The only thing that concerns me is that the Russell and the Nasdaq have already retraced 50% of their move from the June lows, and they are somewhat oversold on the dailies. I expect some type of bounce this week, especially after the nice close we had on friday, but overall I'll be looking for more lows in the next couple of weeks.

Here's some stocks I'll be watching this week:

Long: AUQ, MTG, MTB, HGT, TSN, LNG, URI, CTRP

Oversold or dead cat bounce: AVID, VRSN, RGS, NFX, HMSY, MPO, RGS

Red to green: OCN, WAC, ETR

Short: ALXN, ISIS, ARNA, GFI, PPHM, PBT, ROSG,

Parabolic shorts: OFG, OSTK, TASR, PKI, WBMD, AEGR, CYCC, NFLX (might get parabolic, not there yet)


Drop me a line if you want more info on how to play these setups... and good luck this week!

Watchlist for Oct 21-25

We had a pretty heavy distribution day on friday and the Russell and Nasdaq broke some important levels of support. The SPY and DIA are right on support, but it doesn't look like this support will hold this week. The SPY had been in a range for almost 2 months, but now it seem like we will breakout of the box lower.  I suspect we might have a day or two of bounce in the cards perhaps this week, but friday was a big sign that we're not done going lower in my opinion. There is growing evidence that we may have put in an intermediate term top:
- high volume distribution
- attempting to make new highs, but not being able to (SPY for example)
- breaking significant levels of support
- other factors, including the weakness is former market leaders (GOOG, AAPL, etc)

Another important factor to note is the MACD and RSI divergences on the weekly charts, here's an example with SPY:

The only three sectors that seem to be holding to be holding up ok are the financials and the silver and gold miners (SIL, GDX).

To be honest, I didn't find many great setups, so I'll probably be more cautious this week... in any case, here are a few stocks to watch this week:

Long: BAC, JAG, AEM, AUY, AUQ, BBG, HGT, INSM, TSN, CNC, MDRX

Short: CRR, GFI, MPO, TSO, FITB, PB, GDOT, ACW, ROSG, ALNY, JAZZ, GILD, PPHM

Parabolic shorts: OEH, GIVN, GURE, HLSS, DF, MEET

Watchlist for the week of Oct 8-12

We had a nice bounce this week and the SPY held converging levels of support at ~143. The DJ is at 52w highs, but the russell and the nasdaq are lagging... Overall the picture is neutral (with a slightly more bullish tone) and I could see us consolidating in this box for a couple of weeks. I think a breakout is likely, but it might take a little more time.

Here are some stocks I'll be watching this week:

Long: AFFX, PATK, BODY, SNTA, CECO, OMX, SVN, ES, AXTI, ALSK, CLSN
Short: FSLR, VVUS, PPHM, IDIX, NAV, CNC, GMCR, DNDN, RSH, XPO
Parabolic shorts: IMH, SFUN, INSM, OCN, SVA, FONR
Bounce: CMG, PBM, NUVA, XRTX, MSCI
Red/Green: DCTH
In Play: SRPT, NFLX, PAY, QCOR, PPP, SNSS

If you don't know how to play these setups, drop me a line and I can explain what I look for!
good luck!

Watchlist for Sept 24

The market digested last week, and I feel like the consolidation was quite bullish. As long as we hold the ~144 level on the SPY, I'm still leaning long.. In fact, dips to the 20d MA would be good opportunities to get long. And the environment these days is more condusive to holding stocks for swings, ie a few days at least. Breakouts are working, and I've been seeing more follow-through, so that's a good bullish sign!

Here's a few stocks I'm watching tomorrow and perhaps this week:

Long: SINA, MCP, SSH, OTT, SVU, ZNGA, ARNA, ODP, GENE, ROSG, STEI, UBNT, EDU, EGLE, SYNC, RSH, MTG

Shorts and parabolic shorts: MACK, PPHM, CDE, GSS, AMPE, IEC, HALO, STI, OMX, IMH, MNST

Bounce: DDD, IHS, XPO, HEES

I'm already long a little ZNGA, SVU, JAG and RSH for swings.