Monday, October 29, 2012

Watchlist for the week of Oct 30 to Nov 2

Last week we had some more distribution on good volume and I'm looking for a little more downside before trying some long swings. I posted this chart last wednesday when I noticed the similarities with the correction from May 2012.



I would love to see the SPY retrace back to the 200d MA, which also coincides with the 50% Fib retracement of the entire move from the June lows. This ~138 level was also an important resistance level in the beginning of the year and in the summer, and also happens to be around the highs from 2011. Finding some support there would make sense to me, but we'll have to see what happens. Notice the bear flag on the daily, similar to the one from May 2012, and the heavy distribution volume.



The only thing that concerns me is that the Russell and the Nasdaq have already retraced 50% of their move from the June lows, and they are somewhat oversold on the dailies. I expect some type of bounce this week, especially after the nice close we had on friday, but overall I'll be looking for more lows in the next couple of weeks.

Here's some stocks I'll be watching this week:

Long: AUQ, MTG, MTB, HGT, TSN, LNG, URI, CTRP

Oversold or dead cat bounce: AVID, VRSN, RGS, NFX, HMSY, MPO, RGS

Red to green: OCN, WAC, ETR

Short: ALXN, ISIS, ARNA, GFI, PPHM, PBT, ROSG,

Parabolic shorts: OFG, OSTK, TASR, PKI, WBMD, AEGR, CYCC, NFLX (might get parabolic, not there yet)


Drop me a line if you want more info on how to play these setups... and good luck this week!

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Watchlist for Oct 21-25

We had a pretty heavy distribution day on friday and the Russell and Nasdaq broke some important levels of support. The SPY and DIA are right on support, but it doesn't look like this support will hold this week. The SPY had been in a range for almost 2 months, but now it seem like we will breakout of the box lower.  I suspect we might have a day or two of bounce in the cards perhaps this week, but friday was a big sign that we're not done going lower in my opinion. There is growing evidence that we may have put in an intermediate term top:
- high volume distribution
- attempting to make new highs, but not being able to (SPY for example)
- breaking significant levels of support
- other factors, including the weakness is former market leaders (GOOG, AAPL, etc)



Another important factor to note is the MACD and RSI divergences on the weekly charts, here's an example with SPY:



The only three sectors that seem to be holding to be holding up ok are the financials and the silver and gold miners (SIL, GDX).

To be honest, I didn't find many great setups, so I'll probably be more cautious this week... in any case, here are a few stocks to watch this week:

Long: BAC, JAG, AEM, AUY, AUQ, BBG, HGT, INSM, TSN, CNC, MDRX

Short: CRR, GFI, MPO, TSO, FITB, PB, GDOT, ACW, ROSG, ALNY, JAZZ, GILD, PPHM

Parabolic shorts: OEH, GIVN, GURE, HLSS, DF, MEET


Sunday, October 7, 2012

Watchlist for the week of Oct 8-12

We had a nice bounce this week and the SPY held converging levels of support at ~143. The DJ is at 52w highs, but the russell and the nasdaq are lagging... Overall the picture is neutral (with a slightly more bullish tone) and I could see us consolidating in this box for a couple of weeks. I think a breakout is likely, but it might take a little more time.


Here are some stocks I'll be watching this week:

Long: AFFX, PATK, BODY, SNTA, CECO, OMX, SVN, ES, AXTI, ALSK, CLSN
Short: FSLR, VVUS, PPHM, IDIX, NAV, CNC, GMCR, DNDN, RSH, XPO
Parabolic shorts: IMH, SFUN, INSM, OCN, SVA, FONR
Bounce: CMG, PBM, NUVA, XRTX, MSCI
Red/Green: DCTH
In Play: SRPT, NFLX, PAY, QCOR, PPP, SNSS

If you don't know how to play these setups, drop me a line and I can explain what I look for!
good luck!