Saturday, November 17, 2012

Watchlist for the week of Nov 19-23, 2012

So last week the market fell pretty hard and we dropped to the 61.8% Fib. This was a little more than I anticipated, but we did form a slight divergence on the RSI which I was watching. Is this the bottom? I don't know, but it sure feels like it might be. The strong buying during the second half of friday tells me we're in for at least a decent bounce.

I shorted some 3x ETFs on thursday and friday (the SOXS, TZA, SQQQ), and I plan to hold onto these for a while in my swing portfolio. Typically december and january are good months for the market, so I'm hoping this trend continues.

 It's going to be a short week because of thanksgiving, but I suspect we'll bounce to ~138 in the SPY, which around the 50% Fib level, as well as the 200d MA. After that, we'll have to re-evaluate and see where the market might be headed.



There were a lot of hammers that were put in on friday, so I picked some of these charts and will be looking for continuation. The best hammers are those that happen on high volume, in combination with price support and even better if they bounce off a moving average.

Long (flags or consolidations): SRPT, HGT, FMCN, NFLX, LEAP, GGC, GPRE, TEAR, WCRX, CNC, TRMB, GEOY, AVG, TSLA, FRO, ARMH
Long (hammers): FSLR, CNX, ATRS, CRUS, STEI, JCOM, HRS, SIG, ULTI, DDD
Oversold bounce: WIN, ATR, JCP, MCP, ESI, CPE, MBI, ERF, SKUL, BTH, PBI
Shorts: ROSG, JAH, MIC
Parabolic shorts: NVGN, MEIP, STV, CYBX, SGYP (not parabolic, but coming into MA resistance)

Good luck this week!

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Watchlist for the week of Nov 13-16

The market made it down to my target and I grabbed some 3x long ETFs on friday for a bounce trade. I deceided to take my profits by friday afternoon as I just wasn't feeling confident the market would bounce for more than a day... I'll be looking to get back long in the next few days or couple of weeks, but I'll be waiting for the scenario outlined below. Ideally, we get a lower low with some type divergence on the indicators, RSI, MACD or stochastics, as you can see in the chart below. A double bottom would work just as well, as long as there is also a divergence formed... That would be my ideal scenario, but we'll have to see what the market has in mind.







Sunday, November 4, 2012

Watchlist for the week of Nov 5-9

Well, the market briefly bounced last week, but on fridayit got rejected at the 50d MA and we ended the day with a big bearish engulfing candle. This bodes well for more downside, and I'm still looking for the target of ~138 on the SPY and my chart from last week basically hasn't changed much. I will likely be playing more short setups this week, but we'll have to see what happens. The presidential elections will likely have an impact on the market, so it will likely be an interesting week. See the chart below:




Here are a few setups I'll be watching this week:

Long: SVU, TASR, OSTK, MTB, MTG, CTRP, SRPT, LPHI, SANM

Red/green: SLCA, ANTH, AZC, XIDE, STP

Bounce: NUVA, CRUS, ZUMZ, VVUS, ALXN

Short: XNPT, REGN, OCN, ZLC, ALNY, SMBL, SMCI,  DVAX, BVSN

Parabolic short: ENZ, ALC, BGFV, CARB, ACCO, VAR, IMH, PBH, HNSN


Drop me a line if you want more information on how to play these setups and good luck this week!