Saturday, November 17, 2012

Watchlist for the week of Nov 19-23, 2012

So last week the market fell pretty hard and we dropped to the 61.8% Fib. This was a little more than I anticipated, but we did form a slight divergence on the RSI which I was watching. Is this the bottom? I don't know, but it sure feels like it might be. The strong buying during the second half of friday tells me we're in for at least a decent bounce.

I shorted some 3x ETFs on thursday and friday (the SOXS, TZA, SQQQ), and I plan to hold onto these for a while in my swing portfolio. Typically december and january are good months for the market, so I'm hoping this trend continues.

 It's going to be a short week because of thanksgiving, but I suspect we'll bounce to ~138 in the SPY, which around the 50% Fib level, as well as the 200d MA. After that, we'll have to re-evaluate and see where the market might be headed.

There were a lot of hammers that were put in on friday, so I picked some of these charts and will be looking for continuation. The best hammers are those that happen on high volume, in combination with price support and even better if they bounce off a moving average.

Long (flags or consolidations): SRPT, HGT, FMCN, NFLX, LEAP, GGC, GPRE, TEAR, WCRX, CNC, TRMB, GEOY, AVG, TSLA, FRO, ARMH
Oversold bounce: WIN, ATR, JCP, MCP, ESI, CPE, MBI, ERF, SKUL, BTH, PBI
Shorts: ROSG, JAH, MIC
Parabolic shorts: NVGN, MEIP, STV, CYBX, SGYP (not parabolic, but coming into MA resistance)

Good luck this week!

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