Update and targets

After a big gap down today, we closed the second gap that I mentioned yesterday. I'm now looking for the 120 level on SPY, near the 50d MA on the daily... Below is the 30min chart. If we get gap down again tomorrow, below today's lod, I'll look to buy in the area highlighted by the circle. If we open in today's range, I probably won't do much unless we breakout of that range, one way or another. If we gap above the range, I'll look for support near the 123 area to get long.

I covered my FAS short from 2 days ago, for some nice gains today, also took a day trade long in some TNA and short TVIX right at the open. Otherwise, my swings aren't doing much, RENN and MU are back to breakeven for me (only 1/2 size), I added some GNW and took a small loss in YOKU today.

Starting up the blog again

After some time off from blogging, I'm coming back to it and will try to write a weekly post with some thoughts.... for now, here's a chart of the market. I'm expecting a little correction, at least down to the 38% Fib of this recent move up, and this also coincides with significant volume at price. On the 30-min chart, you can see the unfilled gaps... I'm thinking we might close 2 of those gaps, but we'll have to see...

Right now, I'm short FAS, long RENN (took 1/2 off already), long TRGL, long MU (took 1/2 off already). There are quite a few nice looking charts out there, but I'd rather wait for at least another pullback day, ideally a total of 3 pullback days before looking to add any long swings...

Chatroom

Hey, I'm testing a new free chatroom... click on the chatroom link on the right if you would like to check it out!

Week of May 2nd

I haven't written in a while, so I'll start with a review of the market. I was expecting a little cup and handle pattern in the SPY, and was getting pretty long about 2 weeks ago. We put in more of an inverted head and shoulder pattern, rather than a cup and handle, but the psychology of the consolidation and the expected move is basically the same.

For this week, I'm expecting a slight pullback or a sideways consolidation to digest the recent fast run that we had from ~129 to ~137 in the SPY. After that, I'm expecting the market to continue higher, and my target to take more profits off the table is ~139-140. The NYMO was pretty overbought coming into today, so it should come as no surprise that we had a small pullback. The Osama Bin Laden news provided a nice gap this morning, and I sold partial positions into this gap.

I have several long positions, and I added back at the end of the day some of the shares that I sold this morning. All in all, I'm long some FNSR, FTK, LNG, WNR, WPRT, and added PANL and OVTI as well today. I'm also short some TZA from a few weeks ago (which is the 3x short ETF for the IWM): basically, I am long the Russell index...

One of the swings I added today was PANL. Although it broke out of the triangle today and couldn't hold the breakout, it is still consolidating nicely inside a flag pattern on the daily. Also note the decreasing volume inside this consolidation, and the strong volume on the previous up days.

Watchlist for the week of April 11th

This is going to be a short post, but I'm watching these stocks this week:
Short: HOG, SGMO, FTNT, APH, CCL
Long: CHK, CNQ, OCR, AHD, NG, MELA, UCBI

I'm expecting a small pullback in the market this week, maybe for a couple of days, as highlighted in my previous post, but I won't be trading aggressively to the short side. If I short anything, it will be for 1-2 days max... I will also be paying attention to earnings plays in the coming weeks and months, while companies report Q1 earnings and there will be lots of opportunities. Good luck this week!

Market read for the week of April 11th

I was hoping for a little correction, and if you read my last post, you know that I've been cautious and was not initiating any swing positions. The market didn't really sell off all that much today (Friday April 8th), but enough to test the 10day MA, which is good. I would love another selloff to test the 132 level and would be buying with both hands if we get to the 50d MA again at ~131.  In fact, a little cup and handle formation on the SPY here, before a move higher would be perfect in my opinion!

(NB: the MAs on this chart are not exactly right, so please disregard... I can't figure out how to put a daily 10d MA on the 30 min chart without having discrepancies vs the daily chart. If anyone knows, please let drop me a comment!)

Here's a daily chart that shows the possible cup and handle forming. As I said above, I'd be a buyer in the 131 area, but for now, I will just focus on trading less. It is also possible that today WAS the pullback, and if that's the case, then I will be buying on a breakout above this resistance level.

Even though I said I wouldn't trade much this week, I still did. This was a bad idea, and I knew it from the start. I should have just sat on my hands, but instead I got chopped up in the market. Made a few bucks here, lost a few bucks here, and overall I lost a couple hundred bucks, mostly commissions, and instead I should have been sleeping in! The good thing is that I did only half my usual number of trades, so I'm starting to get better at identifying periods where I need to be trading less.

I'll try to post a watchlist on sunday for next week! Have a good week-end!

Markets and watchlist for the week of April 4th

I woke up late this morning, so I didn't really trade much. I did only 3 trades, with 1/2 size only, which is probably a good thing... I don't like being unprepared for the morning, and so for me, it's best to just sit and watch when that happens! Here's one trade I took today, which worked out ok:

I had been day-trading VHC last week as well, because I had a feeling there would be a lot of short sellers trapped in this name, and any break of a hod would cause some to cover. A similar story is happening in  TZOO, where a lot of shorts are being caught and the stock is rising on short squeezes. It's always a good idea to keep some of these names on your list, to play both on the long and short side! I think VHC and TZOO will eventually make good short candidates, but not just yet!

In other news, the markets have been consolidating lately, which is healthy after the big run up we've had in the last 2 weeks. I'm being fairly cautious here (not initiating any swings long or short) because of this wedge formation. Keep an eye on this to see which way we break... Or we may just move sideways for a while... But I wouldn't be surprised to see a small correction here. In any case, I'm being patient.

In terms of watchlist, I'm looking a only a few things right now: mostly in the oil and gas names! LNG, XTEX, AHD, HNR, CPE, CXO. I'll also be watching LULU on a break of 91.

Good luck this week!